clamber aboard the ERV and blast off to receive a heroes’ welcome on Earth some six months later. They leave behind Mars Base 1, with the Beagle hab, a rover, a greenhouse, power and chemical plants, a stockpile of methane/oxygen fuel, and nearly all of their scientific instruments. In May 2010, shortly after the first crew reaches Earth, a second crew arrives at Mars in Hab 2 and lands at Mars Base 2. The crew of the second mission will spend most of their time exploring the territory around their own site, but they will probably drive over at some point and revisit the old Beagle at Mars Base 1, not just for sentimental reasons, but to continue necessary scientific investigations in that region.
Thus every two years, as shown in Figure 1.2 , two Ares boosters will blast off the Cape, one delivering a hab to a previously prepared site, the other an Earth return vehicle to open up a new region of the Red Planet to a visit by the next mission. Two boosters every two years: That̻s an average launch rate of just one launch per year—12 percent of our heavy-lift launch capability—to support a continuing and expanding program of human Mars exploration. This is certainly affordable and thus sustainable. As an added bonus, the same Ares launch vehicles, habs, and Earth return vehicles (fitted with only one propulsion stage) used in the Mars Direct plan can also be used to build and sustain lunar bases. While Moon bases are most emphatically not needed to support Mars exploration, they are of considerable value in themselves, most notably as sites for superb astronomical observatories. By using common transportation hardware for both lunar and Mars exploration, the Mars Direct approach will save tens of billions of dollars in development costs.
Mars Direct is not without risk. The consequences of extended exposure to Mars’ gravity—38 percent that of Earth—are unknown. However, experience with the more severe deconditioning of astronauts in orbiting zero-gravity facilities indicates that most of the ill effects are temporary. Then there is space radiation, which on the six-month transit trajectories necessitated by current or near-term propulsion technology will give the astronauts doses sufficient to cause an additional 0.5 to 1 percent probability of a fatal cancer at some point later in life. This is nothing to scoff at, but those of us who stay home all face a 20 percent risk of fatal cancer anyway.
The Martian environment itself may hold some surprises, yet the 1970s vintage Viking landers, which were designed for ninety days of operation, functioned without hindrance on the Martian surface for four years, unaffected by cold, wind, or dust. The biggest mission risk arises from possible failures in critical mechanical or electrical systems. Multiple backups for all important systems can minimize the risk, as can the presence of two ace mechanics during the mission. Anyway you slice it, though, going to Mars the first time will involve a certain level of risk. This will be true whether we make the attempt with Mars Direct in 2007 or leave it for another generation to try. Nothing great has ever been accomplished without risk. Nothing great has ever been accomplished without courage.
FIGURE 1.2
The Mars Direct mission sequence. The sequence begins with the launch of an unmanned Earth return vehicle (ERV) to Mars, where it will fuel itself with methane and oxygen manufactured on Mars. Thereafter, every two years, two boosters are launched. One sends an ERV to open up a new site, while the other sends a piloted hab to rendezvous with an ERV at a previously prepared site.
MAY 2018
Over time, many new exploration bases will be added, but eventually it will have to be determined which of the base regions is the best location to build an actual Mars settlement. Ideally this will be situated above a geothermally heated subsurface reservoir, which will afford the base a copious supply of hot water and electric
Thus every two years, as shown in Figure 1.2 , two Ares boosters will blast off the Cape, one delivering a hab to a previously prepared site, the other an Earth return vehicle to open up a new region of the Red Planet to a visit by the next mission. Two boosters every two years: That̻s an average launch rate of just one launch per year—12 percent of our heavy-lift launch capability—to support a continuing and expanding program of human Mars exploration. This is certainly affordable and thus sustainable. As an added bonus, the same Ares launch vehicles, habs, and Earth return vehicles (fitted with only one propulsion stage) used in the Mars Direct plan can also be used to build and sustain lunar bases. While Moon bases are most emphatically not needed to support Mars exploration, they are of considerable value in themselves, most notably as sites for superb astronomical observatories. By using common transportation hardware for both lunar and Mars exploration, the Mars Direct approach will save tens of billions of dollars in development costs.
Mars Direct is not without risk. The consequences of extended exposure to Mars’ gravity—38 percent that of Earth—are unknown. However, experience with the more severe deconditioning of astronauts in orbiting zero-gravity facilities indicates that most of the ill effects are temporary. Then there is space radiation, which on the six-month transit trajectories necessitated by current or near-term propulsion technology will give the astronauts doses sufficient to cause an additional 0.5 to 1 percent probability of a fatal cancer at some point later in life. This is nothing to scoff at, but those of us who stay home all face a 20 percent risk of fatal cancer anyway.
The Martian environment itself may hold some surprises, yet the 1970s vintage Viking landers, which were designed for ninety days of operation, functioned without hindrance on the Martian surface for four years, unaffected by cold, wind, or dust. The biggest mission risk arises from possible failures in critical mechanical or electrical systems. Multiple backups for all important systems can minimize the risk, as can the presence of two ace mechanics during the mission. Anyway you slice it, though, going to Mars the first time will involve a certain level of risk. This will be true whether we make the attempt with Mars Direct in 2007 or leave it for another generation to try. Nothing great has ever been accomplished without risk. Nothing great has ever been accomplished without courage.
FIGURE 1.2
The Mars Direct mission sequence. The sequence begins with the launch of an unmanned Earth return vehicle (ERV) to Mars, where it will fuel itself with methane and oxygen manufactured on Mars. Thereafter, every two years, two boosters are launched. One sends an ERV to open up a new site, while the other sends a piloted hab to rendezvous with an ERV at a previously prepared site.
MAY 2018
Over time, many new exploration bases will be added, but eventually it will have to be determined which of the base regions is the best location to build an actual Mars settlement. Ideally this will be situated above a geothermally heated subsurface reservoir, which will afford the base a copious supply of hot water and electric
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