Tags:
science,
Literature & Fiction,
Genetics,
fate,
Faith,
World Literature,
dna,
math,
award winner,
Luck,
probability,
sequence,
Arun Lakra
thirteen per cent of the population says Ernie and Bert.
As DR. GUZMAN writes 13% on the board, MR. ADAMSON follows the phone wire to a desk.
MR. ADAMSON
Did you get a research grant to study that?
DR. GUZMAN
Somebody did. What Iâm saying is, everything has an order. Itâs fundamental. Itâs intrinsic. The order is everything.
Under some papers on the desk, MR. ADAMSON finds a cordless phone base.
MR. ADAMSON
Why does it matter if itâs Ernie and Bert or Bert and Ernie? Theyâre still the same people.
DR. GUZMAN
Muppets. Ernie has no DNA. Ernie has no parents. Ernie has no God.
MR. ADAMSON
Everything has a God.
DR. GUZMAN
Even Oscar the Grouch?
MR. ADAMSON
Even you.
The cordless phone locator alarm beeps.
DR. GUZMAN holds up the phone handset.
DR. GUZMAN
Looking for this?
She climbs the ladder, places the phone on a shelf, out of his reach.
We have a hypothesis to test. Heads or tails, Mr. Adamson.
MR. ADAMSON
Why not tails or heads?
DR. GUZMAN
Ha! So what youâre saying is, it doesnât matter. We all put our pants on one leg at a time. Whether itâs your right leg first or your left, the order doesnât matter, right?
MR. ADAMSON
You still end up wearing pants.
DR. GUZMAN
Ah, but thatâs where youâre wrong. It does matter. Would you believe which pant leg you put on first is a question that has significant scientific implications? And, itâs predictable.
MR. ADAMSON
Are you telling me you can predict which leg I put on first?
Auditorium
THEO
Whatâs the secret?
CYNTHIA draws on the board: Hs and Ts.
CYNTHIA
Iâve been analyzing your picks. Tails. Heads. Tails. Tails. Heads. Heads. Heads. Tails tails tails tails tails heads heads heads heads heads heads heads, and, last year, heads.
THEO
Iâm honoured. And disturbed.
THEO nudges toward the door.
CYNTHIA
Notice anything interesting?
THEO
About what?
CYNTHIA
About the sequence.
THEO
Like what?
CYNTHIA
How do you make your picks?
THEO
I pick them out of a hat.
CYNTHIA
Bullshit!
THEO
If you really must know, I make my picks by flipping a coin.
CYNTHIA
You pick the result of the coin flip by actually flipping a coin?
THEO
Seemed appropriate.
CYNTHIA
So you take your lucky coinâ¦
THEO
No, I lost my âlucky coinâ after year six. So now I use any old coin. Itâs not the coin thatâs lucky. Although, I will say, year seven was a bit suspenseful.
CYNTHIA
And you flip it.
THEO
Once a year.
CYNTHIA
And by flipping that coin you got that sequence. Tails. Heads. Tails. Tails. Et cetera.
THEO
The last eight have been heads.
CYNTHIA
Yes. Thatâs quite a feat in itself. Do you know what the odds are of getting eight heads in a row? One in 256.
THEO
Most people are betting on nine in a row. The odds in Vegas are six to five for heads this year.
CYNTHIA
Are you telling me millions of people collectively believe that because youâve had eight heads in a row youâre more likely to have nine?
THEO
Hundreds of millions.
CYNTHIA
Idiots!
THEO
Why are they idiots? How do you know theyâre wrong?
CYNTHIA
Theyâre being seduced by the last eight heads. But the odds of the next one being heads remains one in two.
THEO
They still might be right.
THEO checks his watch. He wears it on his right wrist.
What time is it? I should make my pick.
CYNTHIA
This year, Iâd pick tails.
THEO
Why tails?
CYNTHIA
Trust me.
THEO
If youâre so convinced, why donât you put your money where your mouth is?
THEO opens the door.
CYNTHIA
Okay. If it comes up heads, Iâll sleep with you.
THEO stops.
THEO
Go on.
CYNTHIA
Letâs examine your sequence mathematically. One tails. One heads. Two tails. Three heads. Five tails. Eight heads. One one two three five eight.
She circles groups of Hs and Ts, then writes 1 1 2 3 5 8.
THEO
Thatâs my briefcase combination. One one two, three five