Dead Reckoning Read Online Free PDF Page A

see this coming, and it really is very difficult to predict the exact motion of developing storms. It is hard enough to determine the exact strength and position of a storm at this stage, much less forecast the movement of a storm that is hardly moving at the moment. My best estimate is that it will go very near Kwajalein and that we should prepare as if a direct hit is imminent, because it might be.”
    It felt as if the air had gone out of the room. I noticed the ticking of the wall clock as we stared at the commander.
    “My apologies. I was out of order,” he said.
    I noticed a few surprised looks around the table.
    “Timing?” he questioned, apparently unfazed by the turn of events.
    “As I was saying before, steering flow is weak, but I expect it to pick up as the subtropical ridge strengthens and moves further west. Twenty-four to thirty-six hours.”
    “You sure we don’t have more time to prepare? That would be helpful,” he asked.
    “Actually, we don’t want that, sir.”
    He raised an eyebrow.
    “The longer it takes to get here, the more time it will have to strengthen. There is little to inhibit its development at this point. The faster it gets here, the better.”
    “What should we expect?”
    With the momentum on my side, I launched into the specifics. “Best estimate: winds: 70 gusting to 85 knots; seas: 20-30 feet; overwash with severe flooding likely north of the storm track. Much worse if it takes longer.”
    I heard a few murmured swear words around the table.
    “How high will the storm surge be north of the track? I’ve heard it can be 10-15 feet. ”
    “We won’t see anything like that here. The bathymetry of the atoll isn’t conducive to large storm surge. The oceanside parts of the atoll essentially go straight down into the abyss. There is no sloping undersea floor for the surge to build up on. It’s essentially the same reason that we don’t worry much about tsunamis here. Our surge, if any, will be almost entirely from wind loading.”
    “So how high?”
    “I think we will probably just see some of the larger waves washing onto the island. Maybe a foot at most and that will be north of the track. Even Wake wasn’t substantially over-washed with Ioke. But even this amount of water will cause significant flooding.”
    “Any idea where it will cross the atoll—you know, which assets might be at most risk?”
    “Sir, like I….”
    “Never mind, I know,” he said waving me off.
    The commander stared at his hands for a few moments, a noticeable tremor developing in his left.
    “Very well then. This base is officially in warning status,” said the Commander.
    Typhoon warning status was the Range’s equivalent to TCCOR 2 and set in motion the entire range to prepare for the onset of damaging winds within 24 hours. A few minutes after this meeting, hundreds of people’s quiet weekend would come to an abrupt end.
    Commander Blaine looked at LTC Polian.
    “Secure assets a.s.a.p. and begin personnel evacuation preparations immediately. And inform SMDC.”
    SMDC stood for Space and Missile Defense Command, the next agency in the chain of command. SMDC answered to the Department of the Army who reported to the Department of Defense who reported to the President—all of whom had some interest when one of their “assets” was threatened.
    Commander Blaine turned to the Public Affairs Officer.
    “Prepare a statement for the roller highlighting the need to begin personal preparations immediately. Now I know word travels fast on this rock, but let’s sound the sirens, just to get people off the beach and let them know something is going on.”
    “We will meet here again at midnight. I want a report on the status of preparations from each operational area. Let’s get to work.”
    Myriad conversations broke out around the room. As I rose to leave, Commander Blaine put his hand on my shoulder.
    “You have my direct number. Call me if anything changes. This really worries me. I keep