intrigued him. A puzzle like this reminded him of his previous life as an academic.
Loveman turned to MIT, the university famed for excellence in math, science, and engineering, to solve the puzzle. He asked some math experts there to test how many times a gambler would have to play the slots to detect any difference in hold over a cycle of millions of spins. The experiment confirmed Lovemanâs supposition: it would take many, many thousands of times to notice any difference. The math was clear. Still, he wanted to see if gamblers had some special sensory ability to find the better-paying machines. The former professor programmed two sets of slot machines side by side on a casino floor. One kept a 5 percent hold, the other a less generous 7 percent. Casino officials monitored how many people played the different machines, watching closely to see if they would swarm the machines with better odds. Gamblers played the same on each set. Nobody noticed any difference.
Since the chance elevator ride, Harrahâs, the worldâs largest casino companyâit renamed itself Caesars Entertainment in 2010âhas kept a few pennies more on each dollar plunked into its slot machines. 11 It now sets its hold rates at about 8 percent in Las Vegas, 9 percent in Atlantic City, and 10 percent in some regional markets. Some rivals offer better odds. 12 But the change has brought Caesars hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe even billions in extra revenue. 13 Data had disproved instinct. âEvery bit of intuition in the old-time casino business was that we couldnât do that,â Loveman says. âAnd it really was driven by the fact that most people didnât ever understand the difference betweenthe mean of a distribution and what people were experiencing across the distribution.â 14
The former business school professor and his company have not only led the way in tightening the odds of slot machines, but they have bet Caesarsâ future on harvesting personal data rather than developing the fanciest properties. Loveman has watched as Las Vegas rivals continue to outshine Caesars Entertainment by opening ever more glamorous new casino hotels. The companyâs flagship Las Vegas hotel, Caesars Palace, dates back nearly half a century. Back then, Frank Sinatra and his Rat Pack friends could also visit the Stardust, Aladdin, Sahara, or Sands hotels. Other than Caesars Palace, all those hotels have met the Las Vegas developerâs favored solution for old age: dynamite clearing the way for new construction. Many of the Caesars Entertainment Las Vegas hotel casinos are decades old. Singing gondoliers do not navigate canals in front, as they do at the Venetian, nor do fountains explode in a choreographed dance throughout the day and night, as at the Bellagio.
Still, every day many thousands of people pour through the always-open doors of Caesars Palace and the companyâs other Vegas hotels, such as Harrahâs, the Flamingo, Paris, and Ballyâs, just a few of more than fifty properties worldwide. Thatâs because Caesars have an unrivaled asset that enables them to overcome their other shortcomings: vast amounts of personal data.
Sometimes, details gathered from individual customers apply to far larger groups. The Philadelphia couple led to Lovemanâs insights that work broadly on millions of slot players. In other cases, management may know which small group of high-spenders in southern Florida gamble enough money to deserve a free flight to Las Vegas during the March Madness college basketball tournament. Thatâs the power of personal data.
To learn so much about its customers, Caesars followed in the footsteps of the airline industry and set up a loyalty program. By assigning you a number, they can track all of your activities in their establishments, much as American, Delta, and United follow your history of flying with them. If you sign up, which the overwhelming majorityof clients
Jean-Marie Blas de Robles