that no one reading it could guess. Itâd be a death sentence for him if it was intercepted.â
âVery well,â the Secretary of State said reluctantly, glancing at the page. When he had finished reading it he said querulously: âThe more I read it, the less it seems to tell me!â
âThere are two separate items,â St Vincent said patiently, controlling his notoriously short temper. âFirst, the troops. The fact that another 50,000 men are at this moment marching towards Boulogne and Calais means a considerable reinforcement: we know Bonaparte has 100,000 there already.â
âBut is that
likely?â
âWhy not? Since he signed the Treaty of Luneville and put the Austrians out of business, Bonaparte isnât fighting anyone on the Continent of Europeââ
âI know that,â Lord Hawkesbury interrupted impatiently.
âI know you know that,â St Vincent said calmly, âi mention it as a foundation for the point I am about to make, not as fresh news.â
ââPologies,â Hawkesbury said, âiâve had a tiring day.â
âWell, Bonaparte has had three or four months to re-equip his armies and make new plansââ
âAnd heâs decided Great Britain is his last enemy,â Hawkes-bury said in a return of his impatient autocratic manner.
âThatâs reasonably obvious,â the First Lord said, clearly controlling himself with difficulty, âbut until now, until the early summer, he lacked allies.â
âWhat allies?â Hawkesbury was puzzled, as St Vincent had intended him to be.
âThe east wind and a calm sea,â St Vincent said grimly, âand a new moon.â
âWhen can you anticipate that trio coinciding?â
âThe new moon is predictable enoughâthree weeksâ time. The east windâanyoneâs guess. Weâve always anticipated that Bonaparte would have to pick a new moon period, but we need more specific intelligence, otherwise weâd have to bring the Channel Fleet up to the Strait of Dover once a month.â
âAn east wind, eh?â Hawkesbury mused. âWhat if Bonaparte canât wait for it? Can he risk sailing his invasion Flotilla in a west wind?â
âHe could, but ideally he wants if not an east wind then some wind with east in it, because his barges wonât go windward. They need a following wind.â
âAre you saying weâre safe with a west wind? Iâve never heard that view before.â
âA
strong
wind with any west in it will keep âem in port; but we arenât completely safe in a light west wind or a calm; the small barges and gunboats could be rowed across. Hard work but possible.â
âA long row, eh? Thatâll give your frigates and line-of-battle ships a chance to get amongst them!â
St Vincent shook his head. âIâm afraid a sea as calm as that would mean no wind, so the fleet and the frigates would be becalmed.â
âOf course,â Hawkesbury snapped, annoyed with himself for not realizing that. âVery well, the agent hasnât told us much, then.â
âWeâve only discussed the first item,â St Vincent said sourly, âwhich is that 50,000 extra troops are making for Boulogne. The second itemââ he picked up the paper, âsays less but tells us more: Bonaparte is about to ask Bruixâheâs the Admiral commanding the Invasion Flotilla, as you knowâhow soon the flotilla can sail.â
âHmmâI canât see
that
tells us much,â Hawkesbury said.
St Vincent folded the paper with great deliberation and put it down on the table. âOn the face of it, it tells us that Bonaparte the General considers the Army is ready to cross the Channel, and heâs asking Bruix the Admiral for the earliest date the Flotilla can embark it. The question is urgent only if the Flotilla can be made ready fairly