after the biggest financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression, the global economy grew at an overall rate of more than 6 percent. That is an astonishing number when set alongside our pre-1820 averages of less than half a percentage point.
Indeed, even compared to the post–industrial revolution average rates, it is a tremendous acceleration. If the industrial revolution was about shifting the Western economies from horse speed to car speed, today’s transformation is about accelerating the world economy from the pace of snail mail to the pace of e-mail.
For the West and the Western offshoots, the technology revolution and globalization haven’t created a fresh surge in economic growth comparable to that of the industrial revolution (though they have helped maintain the 2 percent to 3 percent annual growth, which we now think of as our base case, but which is in fact historically exceptional).
What these twin transformations have done is trigger an industrial revolution–sized burst of growth in much of the rest of the world—China, India, and some other parts of the developing world are now going through their own gilded ages. Consider: between 1820 and 1950, nearly a century and a half, per capita income in India and China was basically flat—precisely during the period when the West was experiencing its first great economic surge. But then Asia started to catch up. Between 1950 and 1973, per capita income in India and China increased by 68 percent. Then, between 1973 and 2002, it grew by 245 percent, and continues to grow strongly, despite the global financial crisis.
To put that into global perspective: The American economy has grown significantly since 1950—real per capital GDP has tripled. In China, it has increased twelvefold. Before the industrial revolution, the West was a little richer than what we now call the emerging markets, but the lives of ordinary people around the world were mutually recognizable. Milanovic, the World Bank economist, surveyed the economic history literature on international earnings in the nineteenth century. He found that between 1800 and 1849 the wage of an unskilled daily laborer in India, one of the poorest countries at the time, was 30 percent that of the wage of an equivalent worker in England, one of the richest. Here’s another data point: in the 1820s, real wages in the Netherlands were just 70 percent higher than those in China’s Yangtze Valley. Those differences may seem large, but they are trivial compared to today’s. UBS, the Swiss bank, compiles a widely cited global prices and earnings report. In 2009 (the most recent year in which UBS did the full report), the nominal after-tax wage for a building laborer in New York was $16.60 an hour, compared to $0.80 in Beijing, $0.50 in Delhi, and $0.60 in Nairobi, a gap orders of magnitude greater than the one in the nineteenth century. The industrial revolution created a plutocracy—but it also enriched the Western middle class and opened up a wide gap between Western workers and those in the rest of the world. That gap is closing as the developing world embraces free market economics and is experiencing its own gilded age.
Professor Lindert worked closely with Angus Maddison and is a fellow leader of the “deep history” school, a movement devoted to thinking about the world economy over the long term—that is to say, in the context of the entire sweep of human civilization. He believes that the global economic change we are living through today is unprecedented in its scale and impact. “Britain’s classic industrial revolution is far less impressive than what has been going on in the past thirty years,” he told me. The current productivity gains are larger, he explained, and the waves of disruptive innovation much, much faster.
Joel Mokyr, an economist at Northwestern University and an expert on the history of technological innovation and on the industrial revolution, agrees.
“The rate of