Everyone Lies Read Online Free PDF

spurious argument.’
    Fennimore tugged his ear. ‘They based their case on the assumption that if it was extremely unlikely that one child in an affluent middle class family should die of SIDS, then two dying went way beyond coincidence – isn’t that reasonable?’
    ‘ Reasonable .’ Josh snatched the coffee jug from the hotplate. ‘They didn’t even look at environmental factors – the house, the ambient temperatures, the … the fact that both babies had been vaccinated shortly before they died. They didn’t consider genetics, or gender, or—’
    ‘Or the possibility that Sally Clark was innocent,’ Fennimore interrupted.
    Josh stopped. ‘You just said she was guilty.’
    ‘I said she was convicted . Of course, if they’d done a Bayesian analysis of the evidence, the case would never have come to court,’ Fennimore said. ‘Bayes would ask what is the likelihood that the deaths were caused by SIDS, compared with the likelihood that they were caused by murder. Statistically, it’s more likely that two children will die of SIDS in the same family, because of predisposing factors.’
    Josh was quiet for a moment. ‘So all that was just a big wind-up?’ He seemed to be deciding if he should be offended.
    ‘A test maybe.’
    ‘How’m I doing?’
    ‘All right, so far.’
    The student poured the steaming coffee into his cup and raised the jug. Fennimore picked a mug up from the drainer and Josh filled it up.
    ‘So, you’d always use Bayes where the evidence wasn’t clear cut?’ Josh asked.
    ‘Always,’ Fennimore said. ‘Wouldn’t you?’
    ‘I don’t know. I never studied Bayesian stats.’
    ‘Your first degree is in psychology and law, isn’t it?’
    Josh nodded.
    Fennimore sighed. ‘“Combined Honours: the dilution factor” – someone should write a paper on it. You would have done Bayesian stats if you hadn’t turned down the chance to stay in Nottingham to do your PhD in Forensic Psychology.’
    ‘How d’you know about that?’ The guardedness, the willingness to take offence were back in his eyes. ‘I didn’t tell anyone I’d had an offer from Nottingham.’
    ‘Alastair Varley telephoned.’ Varley was a forensic psychologist Fennimore had worked with many times over the years. ‘He said you’re a brilliant scholar. Dedicated, curious, driven almost. He said they offered you a bursary.’
    Josh replaced the coffee jug, and Fennimore waited for him to explain, or at least to ask what Varley had said about him turning down a PhD opportunity with a bursary attached to it, but Josh sipped his coffee in silence.
    Varley had said that Josh Brown was entirely opaque, and possibly self-destructive. Fennimore had taken the last comment as a dig at him, since Josh had ended up under his tutelage. But Varley had dropped the professional rivalry for a millisecond to make a serious point: ‘Josh got a double first,’ he said. ‘And nobody came to see him graduate. Nobody.’
    Fennimore decided that pushing Brown would achieve nothing, so he returned to the original thesis. ‘The second child that died had a staphylococcus infection – did you know that?’
    ‘No,’ Josh said, fully engaged again, now that they were no longer talking about him.
    ‘No reason why you should – it wasn’t even disclosed to the defence. The prosecution quite perversely ignored the relevance of context, and context is always relevant.’
    Josh’s eyes gleamed. ‘Can you recommend some texts? I want to read up on this.’
    Fennimore thought about it. He did need someone to talk through the drugs case. And Josh Brown wasn’t afraid to argue with him. ‘Want a practical introduction to Bayesian analysis?’ he said.
    Josh gave him a long, thoughtful look, and Fennimore thought, You might paint yourself into the background, Josh, but the camouflage will never really fool anyone – the wariness behind your eyes will always betray you. He had only ever seen that kind of wariness in cops and